Is Trump truly inevitable?
There’s a great deal of discussion among potential voters of the conservative persuasion (myself included), speculating on the Donald Trump juggernaut. Is it unstoppable? Even the media spends an inordinate amount of time on the subject. I hear it coming loudly in the periphery of my hearing from the loft, where my dear 95 year old father in law, uses CNN as ambient noise for a good portion of the day.
Yes, I know exposing a senior to CNN is considered a form of elder abuse, but I’m too cheap to cough up the money for the next cable tier that has Fox News. You see, in red state areas, the cable providers know that more often than not, they can extort extra money from tea party people to get FN. I won’t knuckle under.
But back to McDonald – tea party “happy meal” that is bound to make them ill at some point. A friend of mine on FB, first name Ed, with whom I habitually banter and spar, replied with this outstanding and pithy outline of why Trump is not exactly the fait accompli that many suppose he is. I couldn’t improve on it, so here it is verbatim. Thanks, Ed:
a. polling suggests that Trump voters are far less likely to vote in Republican primaries and caucuses than republicans who support other candidates;
b. polling also shows that Trump has fairly high negatives among Republican voters, which suggests that there is a low ceiling to his potential support that is probably below 50%. While this does not matter when there are 15 candidates in the contest, it will matter when the field is winnowed down to 3 or 4 candidates;
c. Iowa is a caucus state, and local organization and a good “get out the vote” operation is key to victory. If 2008 and 2012 is any guide, the candidate who can get the support of the religious right is most likely to do well in the Iowa caucuses. And based on interviews with local political pros, as of today, Ben Carson is far better organized than Trump among Iowa’s religious right voters;
d. New Hampshire Republicans, many of whom are former residents of “Taxachusetts,” are typically more anti-tax than the average Republican voter. They may not respond well to the idea that Trump has expressed support for increasing taxes on the wealthy.
The only item that I thought might not be a prime factor, was the one above, labeled (d) – but it is possible that Ed understands the situation on the ground in NH better than I.
I released the first in a series of composite narratives about people in America who rely on their 2nd Amendment freedom, not only to defend the Constitution from critical mass tyranny, but as a practical matter of daily security. They will be the folks that will resist the plans of the gun confiscating crowd perhaps most fiercely. My concept here, is that if you happen to be in a group of people and the discussion turns to firearms and the pros and cons of gun freedom – the most effective argument is the experiences of real people.
I put the brakes on one individual, who said she thought a longer waiting period for the background check was a good idea. Not surprisingly, this was a New England lass. I said, “suppose that a woman has a man – a potentially violent man, stalking her and is threatened with rape or physical assault. How much longer should she have to wait?” … crickets.
If you haven’t read it yet – here’s a link to the column. Let me know if you’d like to see more:
Some of my readers…
will know who Marine Le Pen is and some won’t. For those of you who don’t – you should get to know her. Aside from Nigel Farage of England’s UKIP (United Kingdom Independent Party) and Geert Wilders, Dutch anti-Islamic immigration politician and the founder and leader of the Party for Freedom (Partij voor de Vrijheid – PVV); Ms. Le Pen is the leader of the French nationalist political party – the National Front (FN), the third-largest political party in France.
Le Pen is also the leader in France against the Islam-ization of her country, and as a result, has come under attack by the national Socialist government of Francois Hollande and his administration. The Hollande administration, uses militant Muslim proxies to file charges against Ms. Le Pen on hate speech charges.
The most recent event, detailed here, is remarkable because, even though Ms. Le Pen has been dragged into court, even the government’s prosecutor is telling the judicial panel in the case that charges should be dismissed, on the basis that Marine Le Pen has not violated any law!
Elections are coming up in France, and Ms. Le Pen’s political enemies want her spending her days in court instead of out on the campaign trail. With any luck – maybe we can flip that paradigm here in America and use it against a genuine menace to our body politic and system of government – Hillary Clinton. Hmmmmmmmmmm.